Gore Mountain Weather 08/09 Part 1
- Thread starter Harvey44
- Start date
but were only at 375ish feet.
Harvey44
New member
This is an excerpt from the best (most optimistic) thing I've found. From Henry M:
Can Santa Bring Me a Big Daddy
NAO TANKS... CAN THAT MEAN SOMETHING IS BREWING...
...This morning I looked at the long range, and it it seems some blocking might start to show up by next weekend. The GFS NAO chart... shows the NAO tanking by this weekend. I have been watching the storm around the third which has my interest for what could be our first chance at a Big Daddy storm.
The GFS has been taking the storm back and forth between the eastern Great Lakes and the coast. The recent runs of the GFS have suggested the storm ends up along the coast. The EURO shows one center going up into the eastern lakes and a secondary developing off the coast of Virginia. I am sure that the next run of the EURO will show an even stronger storm along the coast...
Can Santa Bring Me a Big Daddy
NAO TANKS... CAN THAT MEAN SOMETHING IS BREWING...
...This morning I looked at the long range, and it it seems some blocking might start to show up by next weekend. The GFS NAO chart... shows the NAO tanking by this weekend. I have been watching the storm around the third which has my interest for what could be our first chance at a Big Daddy storm.
The GFS has been taking the storm back and forth between the eastern Great Lakes and the coast. The recent runs of the GFS have suggested the storm ends up along the coast. The EURO shows one center going up into the eastern lakes and a secondary developing off the coast of Virginia. I am sure that the next run of the EURO will show an even stronger storm along the coast...
MidnightCarving
New member
so much for the temps holding... NCP since the afternoon and we're at about 38 right now...
Harvey44
New member
Looks like we've got 5 days of tough luck. Not to say there won't be opportunities for some good turns when the temp is up and the sun is out. From here in downtown NJ....not too likely I can take advantage...but you guys can...
From the Mad River Glen Guys weather blog:
("UGLY, UGLY, UGLY...yaddi yaddi yadda...")
Then....
Improvements will be gradual going into New Years and then beyond but at least one of our important teleconnection indicators will make a shift. The North Atlantic Oscillation index which is one of the three indices to be on the more unfavorable side of zero will move into the more favorable category around New Years Day.
From here the pattern will find it difficult to simply continue in its trough west/ridge east mentality and we should see our threat of big surges of warmth and nair diminish. The need for some additional new natural snow will be vital at this time and it seems as if the potential is there for a storm between the 3rd and 6th of the month. Get the pattern right and the rest takes care of itself. It appears we take some steps to do this but not until after new year.
From the Mad River Glen Guys weather blog:
("UGLY, UGLY, UGLY...yaddi yaddi yadda...")
Then....
Improvements will be gradual going into New Years and then beyond but at least one of our important teleconnection indicators will make a shift. The North Atlantic Oscillation index which is one of the three indices to be on the more unfavorable side of zero will move into the more favorable category around New Years Day.
From here the pattern will find it difficult to simply continue in its trough west/ridge east mentality and we should see our threat of big surges of warmth and nair diminish. The need for some additional new natural snow will be vital at this time and it seems as if the potential is there for a storm between the 3rd and 6th of the month. Get the pattern right and the rest takes care of itself. It appears we take some steps to do this but not until after new year.
Harvey44
New member
Found this buried in the ALB NWS long term. It's all I got right now:
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH DOMINATES OUR WEATHER FOR NEW YEARS DAY...WITH A THIN SHROUD OF HIGH CLOUDS...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH DOMINATES OUR WEATHER FOR NEW YEARS DAY...WITH A THIN SHROUD OF HIGH CLOUDS...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. THE CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
MidnightCarving
New member
haha i like the optimism harv, but im sad to report heavy ncp throughout the afternoon... my road is waxed and polished right now, almost couldnt make it out
Harvey44
New member
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008
A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEPART THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMNA IS THE STORM TRACK....COULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT
THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE A STORM FOR BEGINNING SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASING ACROSS PA...
AT THIS POINT...AM PLAYING THE STORM AS HIGH CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...AND WILL KEEP P-TYPES AS SNOW FOR THE NORTH...AND A MIX FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2008
A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEPART THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMNA IS THE STORM TRACK....COULD SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT
THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE A STORM FOR BEGINNING SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASING ACROSS PA...
AT THIS POINT...AM PLAYING THE STORM AS HIGH CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...AND WILL KEEP P-TYPES AS SNOW FOR THE NORTH...AND A MIX FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
Harvey44
New member
From the Mad River Weather guy:
Pattern aligning itself in a very "right" way
One has to be seriously encouraged with the outlook for the first half of January. The NAO shift is the first triggering mechanism but this will be combined later in the month with what now appears to be a complete elimination of the trough across the west.
Now it appears as if the NAO shift will be combined with the building of a ridge across the west and this severely weakens the threat for rain for at least the first 15 days of January. If we shut down the Pacific entirely, including the all important moisture supply of the jet stream's southern branch than it could be more of a dry cold but this is jumping a bit ahead of ourselves.
The first 10 days of January will feature at least 2 significant storms and I am encouraged that we will recover a healthy percentage of what was recently lost.
Pattern aligning itself in a very "right" way
One has to be seriously encouraged with the outlook for the first half of January. The NAO shift is the first triggering mechanism but this will be combined later in the month with what now appears to be a complete elimination of the trough across the west.
Now it appears as if the NAO shift will be combined with the building of a ridge across the west and this severely weakens the threat for rain for at least the first 15 days of January. If we shut down the Pacific entirely, including the all important moisture supply of the jet stream's southern branch than it could be more of a dry cold but this is jumping a bit ahead of ourselves.
The first 10 days of January will feature at least 2 significant storms and I am encouraged that we will recover a healthy percentage of what was recently lost.
mattchuck2
New member
NICE
Harvey44
New member
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
316 PM EST MON JAN 5 2009
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.
ANOTHER COMPLEX STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND TRACK NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH SNOWFALL INTENSITY INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY ...ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
316 PM EST MON JAN 5 2009
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.
ANOTHER COMPLEX STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND TRACK NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH SNOWFALL INTENSITY INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY ...ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
Harv- how handy are you! thanks for the info.
We are fortunate to have our very own Skiing Weatherman - Harvey44 !!!
esp. on those questionable days and Harvey44 is near slopeside. he even posts live reports early in the am.
Thanks Harvey44, for all you do.
:idea:
For a forecast that's sure....
turn to Harvey44.
We are fortunate to have our very own Skiing Weatherman - Harvey44 !!!
esp. on those questionable days and Harvey44 is near slopeside. he even posts live reports early in the am.
Thanks Harvey44, for all you do.
:idea:
For a forecast that's sure....
turn to Harvey44.
Harvey44
New member
He's GOT to be pullin my leg.
This looks to be for real...good stuff. Weather is beautiful, wish I was there:
Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 23. Wind chill values as low as zero. West wind between 6 and 9 mph.
Tonight: Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 15. Calm wind becoming east between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Wednesday: Snow before noon, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. High near 25. Southeast wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 16. South wind 8 to 11 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
This looks to be for real...good stuff. Weather is beautiful, wish I was there:
Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 23. Wind chill values as low as zero. West wind between 6 and 9 mph.
Tonight: Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 15. Calm wind becoming east between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Wednesday: Snow before noon, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. High near 25. Southeast wind between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 16. South wind 8 to 11 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Harvey44
New member
Hey Snow it's all good:
From NWS:
ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...SLEET COULD MIX IN WITH SNOW...BUT WE THINK SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE...WITH AMOUNTS 7 TO 10 INCHES WITH A GOOD SHOT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LIGHTENING UP (AND THIS IS WHEN IT MIGHT MIX WITH SLEET) MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN BY EVENING. ON TOP OF THAT...WILL LIKELY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT PRODUCED SNOW.
From NWS:
ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...SLEET COULD MIX IN WITH SNOW...BUT WE THINK SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE...WITH AMOUNTS 7 TO 10 INCHES WITH A GOOD SHOT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LIGHTENING UP (AND THIS IS WHEN IT MIGHT MIX WITH SLEET) MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN BY EVENING. ON TOP OF THAT...WILL LIKELY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT PRODUCED SNOW.
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